The 2012 Presidential Election by Cavari Amnon

Author:Cavari, Amnon.
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield Publishing Group, Inc.
Published: 2013-10-29T16:00:00+00:00

ASSESSING THE EFFECT OF MACROHANDLING

ON MACROPARTISANSHIP

To examine the causal relationship between the two processes, I use the Granger causality test. Each series is regressed against the lag of the other series to test whether change of one series helps predict change of the other. If a series helps predict change of the other series, it is said to Granger-cause the other series.

The Granger causality test reveals that macrohandling Granger-causes macropartisanship (F=2.92), whereas macropartisanship does not Granger-cause macrohandling (F=0.56). This challenges the conventional use of party identification as a standing decision that affects party evaluations. Rather than macropartisanship affecting party evaluations, the Granger causality tests reveal that evaluations of the parties (macrohandling) explain aggregate changes in party identification (macropartisanship). Party handling serves as an indicator of partisan change.

Macrohandling is a dynamic factor in public assessments of the parties. Therefore, we should expect that current evaluations of the parties would affect party attachments. When a growing share of Americans finds one party more able to handle policy challenges, the balance of partisan attachments may shift. To test this proposition, I estimate a multivariate ARIMA model in which macrohandling is added as an exogenous factor to the generating process affecting macropartisanship. The results are summarized in table 5.3, together with a reprint of the univariate model of macropartisanship from table 5.2.

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